2026 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TEXAS
What NOAA expects, what Kalshi is pricing, and how Texas Gulf Coast residents and businesses can use prediction markets as a real hedge.
Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25!
TXPREDICTSClaim (opens in a new tab)21+ · T&Cs apply
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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Update — September 29, 2026: Through September 29 the 2026 Atlantic season has had eight named storms and no hurricanes; Tropical Storm Arthur (June) came ashore on the upper Texas coast and Tropical Storm Edouard (August 31) made landfall near the Texas–Louisiana border (National Hurricane Center). The season runs to November 30.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30. NOAA's outlook calls for a near- to above-normal season, and Kalshi is the deepest CFTC-regulated venue for trading named-storm counts and U.S. landfall contracts — both legally available to Texans 21+.
TL;DR:
- 📅 Season: June 1 – November 30, 2026.
- 🌀 Texas peak risk window: mid-August through early October.
- 📊 NOAA 2026 outlook: near- to above-normal activity.
- 💼 Trade it: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) named-storm and landfall contracts.
What NOAA expects for 2026
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a near- to above-normal Atlantic season for 2026, citing warmer-than-average Atlantic and Gulf sea-surface temperatures and a neutral-to-La Niña Pacific pattern. Historically, those conditions favor more named storms and more landfalls — the Texas coast from Brownsville to Beaumont is squarely in the cone of higher-than-average risk.
What the market is pricing
Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated contracts on the total number of Atlantic named storms, U.S. hurricane landfalls, and basin-level activity. Polymarket lists higher-level season contracts. Traded prices are the market's live implied probability — and reprice in minutes when NHC issues a new advisory or model run shifts.
For day-by-day Texas weather trading (heat, daily highs, rain), see trading Texas weather markets and the live Texas heat dome 2026 guide.
Hedging the Texas Gulf Coast
- Marinas, charter ops: long YES on a Texas-landfall contract pays out the same season your dock days disappear.
- Coastal contractors: a small position on "2+ U.S. hurricanes" tracks repair-demand reality.
- Event organizers: hurricane contracts pair naturally with date-specific weather contracts in the Sept–Oct window.
- Energy / ERCOT exposure: see our weather-markets deep dive for grid-stress contracts during storm landfall.
Where to trade it
Kalshi
Deepest CFTC-regulated hurricane book. Named-storm counts, U.S. landfall, basin activity. USD deposits, ACH/debit.
Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25!
TXPREDICTS
Claim on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Last checked October 21, 2026
Polymarket
Higher-level season contracts and select named-storm markets. Operates via its CFTC-regulated U.S. entity.
Sources & references
More: Trading Texas weather markets · All weather markets →
Pick your venue
Four CFTC-regulated exchanges that accept Texans (status in Texas: Available, as of 3 October 2026). Full comparison →
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated event contracts — trade $25, get $25
- CFTC-regulated (USA)
- Available in Texas
- Best for: Sports, weather, politics, economics
ProphetX
Your sports prediction market — trade $50, get $75
- CFTC-designated contract market
- 49 states + D.C. (not Nevada), including Texas
- Best for: Sports-only trading, no-vig peer-to-peer pricing
Polymarket
Largest prediction market — deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus
- Polymarket Clearing (CFTC-regulated exchange)
- Available in Texas
- Best for: Deep liquidity, sports, politics & culture
OG (Crypto.com)
Sports event contracts on a CFTC-regulated DCM
- CFTC-regulated DCM (via Crypto.com Derivatives North America)
- Available in Texas
- Best for: Sports event contracts, mobile-first UX
Sources & references
Frequently asked questions
When does the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season start?
The official Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30, 2026. Peak activity for the Gulf Coast — including the Texas coast from Brownsville to Beaumont — is mid-August through early October.
Will a hurricane hit Texas in 2026?
NOAA's 2026 outlook calls for a near- to above-normal Atlantic season. Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated contracts on named-storm counts and US landfall locations. Live traded probabilities are the fastest public signal on how the market is pricing Texas landfall risk this season — see the active contracts on Kalshi.
Can I trade hurricane markets from Texas?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US designated contract market and lists hurricane season contracts (total named storms, US hurricane landfall, specific basin activity). It is legally available to Texas residents 21+ as a federal derivatives product, not state-licensed gambling.
How do hurricane prediction markets work?
You buy YES or NO shares on a specific question — for example, 'Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas in 2026?' Shares trade between $0.01 and $0.99 and pay $1 on the winning side at resolution. The traded price is the market's implied probability.
Are hurricane markets a real hedge for Gulf Coast businesses?
Indirectly. They are smaller than CME weather futures but priced in real time and accessible to retail. Marinas, coastal contractors, and event organizers along the Texas coast use them to take small positions that pay out in the same weeks an actual landfall would create losses.
21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
