Austin weather betting and Houston temperature market contracts are the most-traded daily weather book in finance. A single Austin daily-high market routinely clears $30K–$150K in 24 hours — more volume than most US political markets see in a week. Below: every Texas weather contract worth knowing, with live odds.
1. Daily Austin & Houston temperature markets
Polymarket lists a fresh market each day for the high temperature in Austin and Houston (plus several other US cities). The market is bracketed in 2-degree increments — "82–83°F", "84–85°F", "86–87°F", and so on, with open tails like "75°F or below" and "96°F or higher".
Volume is the surprising part. A single Austin daily-high market routinely trades $30K–$150K in a 24-hour window. Houston daily highs trade $40K+. That's more volume than most US political markets see in a week.
How to trade them: pull up the NWS Austin forecast or NWS Houston forecast, pick the bracket you think the official high lands in, and buy YES. The market resolves automatically to the NWS-reported high for that date. Edge comes from being faster than the market on a forecast revision — or from having a better read on bias in tail brackets.
2. Atlantic hurricane season & Texas landfall
Kalshi lists CFTC-regulated contracts on:
- Number of named storms in the Atlantic season
- Number of US landfalls
- Major hurricane (Cat 3+) landfalls
- Specific named-storm tracking contracts when storms are active
For Gulf Coast Texans, these are genuinely useful hedges. A small farm operator, marina, or homeowner with hurricane deductible exposure can buy YES on "Texas landfall in 2026" as cheap insurance — the contract is much smaller-ticket than parametric insurance products. See NHC's 2026 Atlantic outlook for the underlying forecast that drives the market.
3. ERCOT and Texas grid markets
Kalshi has periodically listed ERCOT-related contracts during periods of grid stress — emergency alerts, peak load thresholds, and price spike events. These are smaller markets but the most direct way for a Texas business with electricity exposure to hedge against a repeat of the February 2021 freeze or a record summer demand event.
They surface most often in July–August (peak summer demand) and January–February (winter freeze risk). Watch Kalshi's economics and weather categories during those windows, alongside ERCOT's grid conditions dashboard.
4. Monthly TX temperature & rainfall
Kalshi lists monthly contracts on average temperature and total rainfall for major US metros including Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston. Slower-moving than Polymarket's daily highs, more useful for traders who want to take a view on a full month.
Where to trade Texas weather
The category leader for US-regulated weather contracts. Hurricane season, monthly temperature, rainfall, ERCOT-adjacent. CFTC-regulated. The right venue for hedging real exposure.
Daily Austin and Houston high-temperature brackets, with surprising volume. The best venue for active short-term weather trading on Texas cities.
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