As of June 2026, Polymarket prices the Republican party at ~86% to hold the Texas governorship and Greg Abbott at near-100% to win the GOP primary. With Abbott approval rating consistently above 50% among Texas Republicans and no major intra-party challenger, the only contested action is the Democratic primary.
Polymarket has three open Texas Governor 2026 contracts: the general election winner (party), the Republican primary, and the Democratic primary. The general-election market prices a Republican win at about 86%, in line with every statewide Texas race for the last two decades.
Republican primary: Abbott runs away
Abbott is trading at essentially 100% to win the GOP primary. He has the incumbency, the war chest (Texas's largest political PAC by a wide margin), and no major intra-party challenger. The "race" is the general election margin and the down-ballot effect on the 2026 Senate primary.
Democratic primary: Hinojosa won the nomination
With both primaries settled, the only live Texas Governor contract left is the general-election winner above. The Democratic nominee is priced around 14%, reflecting the structural lean of statewide Texas — no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994.
How to trade the Texas Governor race
Polymarket has the deepest liquidity on all three Texas Governor contracts. Kalshi lists a comparable CFTC-regulated gubernatorial contract — smaller volume but a stronger US-regulatory story. See our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison for the full breakdown.
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