Texas governor race 2026: Abbott vs Hinojosa

On this page · 7

1. Key dates for Texas voters
2. Who is running for Texas governor?
3. What do the polls say?
4. How do prediction markets cover this race?
5. When will the result be known?
6. Which platforms cover the Texas governor race?
7. Sources

Key dates for Texas voters

Date	What happens	Detail
Monday, October 5, 2026	Last day to register to vote	This deadline has passed
Monday, October 19, 2026	First day of early voting in person	You can use any early voting location in the county where you are registered
Friday, October 23, 2026	Last day to apply for a ballot by mail	The application must be received by this date, not just postmarked
Friday, October 30, 2026	Last day of early voting in person	There is no in-person voting between this date and Election Day
Tuesday, November 3, 2026	Election Day	Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026	Mail ballot deadline, no postmark	The ballot must be received by 7:00 p.m.
Wednesday, November 4, 2026	Mail ballot deadline, with postmark	Received by 5:00 p.m., if postmarked by 7:00 p.m. on Election Day. Other deadlines apply to overseas and military voters
November 6 to 17, 2026	Local canvass of returns	County results become official once the canvass is done
November 21 to December 7, 2026	State canvass by the Governor	This is the window in which the statewide result is made official

Voting dates come from the Texas Secretary of State's Important Election Dates page and the VoteTexas.gov FAQ. Canvass dates come from the Secretary of State's November 3, 2026 Election Law Calendar.

Who is running for Texas governor?

• Greg Abbott (Republican) has been governor since January 20, 2015. He was elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2018 and 2022. He won the March 3 Republican primary with 81.8% of the vote.
• Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) is a state representative for House District 49. She won the March 3 Democratic primary with 58.5% of the vote in a nine-candidate field, so no runoff was needed.
• Pat Dixon (Libertarian) is the Libertarian Party nominee and the only other name printed on the ballot for governor.

Texas has no term limit for governor. The last Democrat elected governor was Ann Richards, who won in 1990 and served from 1991 to 1995. For the other statewide contest at the top of the ballot, see our Texas Senate race guide.

What do the polls say?

Poll	Field dates (2026)	Sample	Abbott (R)	Hinojosa (D)
YouGov	September 28 to October 5	3,625 likely voters, ±3	47%	48%
Fox News (Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research)	September 24 to 28	881 likely voters, ±3	52%	47%
Marist Poll	September 17 to 20	1,139 registered voters, ±4.4	46%	49%
Texas Southern University	September 15 to 19	1,800 likely voters, ±2.3	49%	45%
Emerson College Polling / Nexstar Media	September 12 to 14	1,000 likely voters, ±3	49%	46%

Each row links to the pollster's own release. Polls are snapshots, not forecasts, and several of the differences here are inside or near the margin of error. The Emerson and Texas Southern polls also offered Pat Dixon as a choice.

How do prediction markets cover this race?

An election contract pays $1 if its stated outcome happens and nothing if it does not. The market price sits between those two numbers and moves as people trade, so it reads as traders' collective estimate of the chance. It is not a poll, a forecast or a result. Markets and polls can disagree, and either can be wrong.

We do not quote prices on this page because they change by the minute. Check the live market in the app, and remember that you can lose the amount you put in.

How a Texas governor contract settles

• Kalshi's Texas Governor winner market is written by party. Its rules say a side resolves to Yes if a representative of that party is inaugurated as governor of Texas pursuant to the 2026 election. The rules also allow an earlier determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner.
• Polymarket US's Texas Governor Election Winner market settles to Yes if the named party's nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Texas. The outcome is taken from the relevant government authorities and includes any runoff or tiebreak procedure.
• Polymarket US's margin of victory market uses the difference in vote share between the first and second candidates, taken from state election authorities.

Both winner markets show the candidates' names, but the written terms refer to the party or its nominee. Read the full rules in the app before you trade, and leave a contract alone if the wording is unclear to you. If the idea is new to you, start with what a prediction market is.

When will the result be known?

Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Most of Texas is on Central time. The El Paso area is on Mountain time, so its polls close an hour later. Counties report through the night, and everything published on election night is unofficial.

Mail ballots postmarked by 7:00 p.m. on Election Day can still arrive until 5:00 p.m. the next day, and overseas and military ballots have later deadlines. Local canvassing runs from November 6 to 17, and the Governor conducts the state canvass between November 21 and December 7. A contract settles under its own written rules, which may be earlier or later than those dates. Our Texas election results guide explains where to follow the count.

Which platforms cover the Texas governor race?

For politics, start with Kalshi, then Polymarket US, then OG. Kalshi's, Polymarket US's and OG's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+. Access to a platform and a listing for one specific race are separate questions, so confirm the listing in the app before you do anything else. The Texas status for each platform is in the Where things stand box at the top of this page.

Our Texas politics hub lists the other election markets we follow.

Frequently asked questions

Who is running for Texas governor in 2026?

Republican Governor Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state representative. Libertarian Pat Dixon is also on the ballot, and the state lists four certified write-in candidates.

When is the Texas governor election?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. local time.

When does early voting start in Texas?

Early voting in person runs from Monday, October 19 to Friday, October 30, 2026. You can vote at any early voting location in the county where you are registered.

Is Greg Abbott term-limited?

Texas has no term limit for governor. Abbott has held the office since January 2015 and is seeking a fourth term.

When did a Democrat last win the Texas governor race?

The last Democrat elected governor of Texas was Ann Richards, who won in 1990 and served from 1991 to 1995.

How does a Texas governor election contract settle?

It depends on the platform's written rules. Kalshi's market resolves on which party's representative is inaugurated as governor after the 2026 election. Polymarket US's market settles on which party's nominee wins the election, as reported by government authorities. Read the rules in the app first.

Can Texans trade the governor race on Kalshi or Polymarket US?

Access is a status, not a blanket legal ruling. The status for each platform is in the Where things stand box, and our Texas status guide explains what the state has and has not done.