As of June 2026, Polymarket prices the Republican party at ~86% to hold the Texas governorship and Greg Abbott at near-100% to win the GOP primary. With Abbott approval rating consistently above 50% among Texas Republicans and no major intra-party challenger, the only contested action is the Democratic primary.
Polymarket has three open Texas Governor 2026 contracts: the general election winner (party), the Republican primary, and the Democratic primary. The general-election market prices a Republican win at about 86%, in line with every statewide Texas race for the last two decades.
Republican primary: Abbott runs away
Abbott is trading at essentially 100% to win the GOP primary. He has the incumbency, the war chest (Texas's largest political PAC by a wide margin), and no major intra-party challenger. The "race" is the general election margin and the down-ballot effect on the 2026 Senate primary.
Democratic primary: Hinojosa leads
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa is the early Polymarket favorite for the Democratic nomination. Beto O'Rourke trades at single digits — markets currently think he runs again only if Abbott is unexpectedly weakened. The bigger story: even the Democratic nominee is priced at ~14% in the general, reflecting the structural lean of statewide Texas.
How to trade the Texas Governor race
Polymarket has the deepest liquidity on all three Texas Governor contracts. Kalshi lists a comparable CFTC-regulated gubernatorial contract — smaller volume but a stronger US-regulatory story. See our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison for the full breakdown.
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