Texas Senate race 2026: Paxton vs Talarico

On this page · 8

1. Key dates for Texas voters
2. Who is running for US Senate in Texas?
3. What do the polls say?
4. How do prediction markets cover this race?
5. Why isn't John Cornyn or Ted Cruz on the ballot?
6. When will the result be known?
7. Which platforms cover the Texas Senate race?
8. Sources

Two weeks out: Texas Senate 2026: Paxton vs Talarico with two weeks to go has the latest polls and early voting dates.

Key dates for Texas voters

Date	What happens	Detail
Monday, October 5, 2026	Last day to register to vote	This deadline has passed
Monday, October 19, 2026	First day of early voting in person	You can use any early voting location in the county where you are registered
Friday, October 23, 2026	Last day to apply for a ballot by mail	The application must be received by this date, not just postmarked
Friday, October 30, 2026	Last day of early voting in person	There is no in-person voting between this date and Election Day
Tuesday, November 3, 2026	Election Day	Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026	Mail ballot deadline, no postmark	The ballot must be received by 7:00 p.m.
Wednesday, November 4, 2026	Mail ballot deadline, with postmark	Received by 5:00 p.m., if postmarked by 7:00 p.m. on Election Day. Other deadlines apply to overseas and military voters
November 6 to 17, 2026	Local canvass of returns	County results become official once the canvass is done
November 21 to December 7, 2026	State canvass by the Governor	This is the window in which the statewide result is made official

Voting dates come from the Texas Secretary of State's Important Election Dates page and the VoteTexas.gov FAQ. Canvass dates come from the Secretary of State's November 3, 2026 Election Law Calendar.

Who is running for US Senate in Texas?

• Ken Paxton (Republican) is the Texas attorney general. He finished in the top two in the March 3 Republican primary and then won the May 26 runoff against Senator John Cornyn with 63.8% of the vote to Cornyn's 36.2%.
• James Talarico (Democrat) is a state representative for House District 50 in the Austin area. He won the March 3 Democratic primary with 52.4% of the vote, ahead of Jasmine Crockett on 46.2%, so no runoff was needed.
• Ted Brown (Libertarian) is the Libertarian Party nominee and the only other name printed on the ballot.

The seat has no incumbent on the ballot. The last Democrat to win a US Senate election in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. For the other statewide contest at the top of the ballot, see our Texas governor race guide.

What do the polls say?

Poll	Field dates (2026)	Sample	Paxton (R)	Talarico (D)
YouGov	September 28 to October 5	3,625 likely voters, ±3	44%	50%
Fox News (Beacon Research / Shaw & Company Research)	September 24 to 28	881 likely voters, ±3	49%	51%
Marist Poll	September 17 to 20	1,139 registered voters, ±4.4	44%	50%
Texas Southern University	September 15 to 19	1,800 likely voters, ±2.3	46%	47%
Emerson College Polling / Nexstar Media	September 12 to 14	1,000 likely voters, ±3	46%	47%

Each row links to the pollster's own release. Polls are snapshots, not forecasts, and several of the differences here are inside or near the margin of error. The Emerson and Texas Southern polls also offered Ted Brown as a choice.

How do prediction markets cover this race?

An election contract pays $1 if its stated outcome happens and nothing if it does not. The market price sits between those two numbers and moves as people trade, so it reads as traders' collective estimate of the chance. It is not a poll, a forecast or a result. Markets and polls can disagree, and either can be wrong.

We do not quote prices on this page because they change by the minute. Check the live market in the app, and remember that you can lose the amount you put in.

How a Texas Senate contract settles

• Kalshi's Texas Senate winner market is written by party. Its rules say a side resolves to Yes if a representative of that party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027. The rules also allow an earlier determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner.
• Polymarket US's Texas Senate Election Winner market settles to Yes if the named party's nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for US Senator from Texas. The outcome is taken from the relevant government authorities and includes any runoff or tiebreak procedure.
• Polymarket US's margin of victory market uses the difference in vote share between the first and second candidates, taken from state election authorities. Its turnout market settles on the officially certified results.

Both winner markets show the candidates' names, but the written terms refer to the party or its nominee. Read the full rules in the app before you trade, and leave a contract alone if the wording is unclear to you.

Why isn't John Cornyn or Ted Cruz on the ballot?

John Cornyn holds this seat, but he lost the May 26 Republican runoff to Ken Paxton, so he is not on the November ballot. Ted Cruz holds the other Texas seat. He was re-elected in 2024 and that seat is next up in 2030. Our guide on whether Ted Cruz is up for re-election in 2026 covers it in full.

When will the result be known?

Polls close at 7:00 p.m. local time on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Most of Texas is on Central time. The El Paso area is on Mountain time, so its polls close an hour later. Counties report through the night, and everything published on election night is unofficial.

Mail ballots postmarked by 7:00 p.m. on Election Day can still arrive until 5:00 p.m. the next day, and overseas and military ballots have later deadlines. Local canvassing runs from November 6 to 17, and the Governor conducts the state canvass between November 21 and December 7. A contract settles under its own written rules, which may be earlier or later than those dates. Our Texas election results guide explains where to follow the count.

Which platforms cover the Texas Senate race?

For politics, start with Kalshi, then Polymarket US, then OG. Kalshi's, Polymarket US's and OG's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+. Access to a platform and a listing for one specific race are separate questions, so confirm the listing in the app before you do anything else. The Texas status for each platform is in the Where things stand box at the top of this page.

Our Texas politics hub lists the other election markets we follow.

Frequently asked questions

Who is running for US Senate in Texas in 2026?

Republican Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, faces Democrat James Talarico, a state representative, for the seat held by John Cornyn. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot, and the state lists four certified write-in candidates.

When is the Texas Senate election?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. local time.

When does early voting start in Texas?

Early voting in person runs from Monday, October 19 to Friday, October 30, 2026. You can vote at any early voting location in the county where you are registered.

Why isn't John Cornyn on the November ballot?

Cornyn lost the Republican primary runoff to Ken Paxton on May 26, 2026. Paxton received 63.8% of the vote and became the Republican nominee.

Is Ted Cruz up for re-election in 2026?

Ted Cruz is not on the 2026 ballot. He was re-elected in 2024, and his seat is next up in 2030. The 2026 race is for the seat held by John Cornyn. Our Ted Cruz guide explains more.

How does a Texas Senate election contract settle?

It depends on the platform's written rules. Kalshi's market resolves on which party's representative is sworn in for the term beginning in 2027. Polymarket US's market settles on which party's nominee wins the election, as reported by government authorities. Read the rules in the app first.

Can Texans trade the Senate race on Kalshi or Polymarket US?

Access is a status, not a blanket legal ruling. The status for each platform is in the Where things stand box, and our Texas status guide explains what the state has and has not done.