Why do weather prediction markets matter?

They're a hedge for farmers, energy traders, event organizers, and anyone exposed to Texas weather. They also produce some of the most accurate public weather forecasts available.

Can I trade hurricane markets from Texas?

Yes — Kalshi lists Atlantic hurricane season contracts including named storm counts, US landfall, and specific storm tracks. Texans on the Gulf Coast use these to hedge real exposure.

Weather markets

Trade Texas weather

From Gulf hurricanes to August heat domes, Kalshi's CFTC-regulated weather contracts let Texans hedge real exposure or speculate on extreme events.

Weather hits Texas harder than almost any state — hurricanes on the Gulf, ice storms in the Hill Country, 110°+ summers from Laredo to Lubbock. Weather prediction markets give farmers, energy traders, event organizers, and curious Texans a way to put a price on what's coming.

Texas weather markets

Hurricane season: Named storm counts, US landfalls, specific track and intensity contracts.
Monthly temperature: Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio — high/low temperature ranges.
Heat extremes: Days above 100°F or 110°F in TX metros.
Rainfall: Monthly precipitation totals by city.
Winter storms: Snowfall, ice events, freeze warnings.

Trade on Kalshi

→ Deep dive: How to trade Texas weather markets (heat, hurricanes, ERCOT)

Pick your venue

The three legal prediction platforms Texans actually use. Full comparison →

Polymarket

Largest prediction market — $50 welcome bonus

Polymarket Clearing (CFTC-regulated exchange)
Available in Texas — iOS app
Best for: Deep liquidity, sports, politics & culture

Trade on Polymarket

ProphetX

Your sports prediction market — trade $10, get $20

CFTC-licensed DCM & DCO
Available nationwide, including Texas
Best for: Sports-only trading, no-vig peer-to-peer pricing

Trade on ProphetX

Kalshi

CFTC-regulated event contracts — trade $25, get $25

CFTC-regulated (USA)
Available in Texas
Best for: Sports, weather, politics, economics

Trade on Kalshi

Crypto.com

Sports event contracts on a CFTC-regulated DCM

CFTC-regulated DCM (via Crypto.com Derivatives North America)
Available in Texas
Best for: Sports event contracts, mobile-first UX

Trade on Crypto.com

Frequently asked questions

Hurricane landfall (highly relevant to the Gulf Coast), monthly temperature contracts for Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio, rainfall totals, snowfall, and major storm tracking. Kalshi is the leading venue.