Texas Prediction Markets

BET ON POLITICS

Kalshi and Polymarket US list election contracts and accept Texas residents (status in Texas: Available, as of 3 October 2026). Trade presidential, congressional, and Texas-specific races on CFTC-regulated exchanges.

Updated
On this page
  1. Markets available
  2. Why political markets matter
  3. Texas 2026 live trackers
  4. Pick your venue

Political prediction markets aggregate real money from thousands of traders, producing a continuous probability signal that consistently outperforms public polling. Texans can trade them on Kalshi and Polymarket US.

Markets available

  • US presidential election (next cycle and primaries)
  • House and Senate control, individual seat races
  • Texas governor, lieutenant governor, AG races
  • Supreme Court decisions and confirmations
  • Policy outcomes: budget, tariffs, regulation
  • Foreign elections impacting US markets

Why political markets matter

Prediction markets called the 2024 election earlier and more accurately than every major polling aggregator. For Texans following state and national politics, they're the cleanest signal available — and they pay you if you're right.

Trade on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) Trade on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)

Texas 2026 live trackers

Pick your venue

Four CFTC-regulated exchanges that accept Texans (status in Texas: Available, as of 3 October 2026). Full comparison →

Kalshi

CFTC-regulated event contracts — trade $25, get $25

  • CFTC-regulated (USA)
  • Available in Texas
  • Best for: Sports, weather, politics, economics

Trade on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)

ProphetX

Your sports prediction market — trade $50, get $75

  • CFTC-designated contract market
  • 49 states + D.C. (not Nevada), including Texas
  • Best for: Sports-only trading, no-vig peer-to-peer pricing

Trade on ProphetX (opens in a new tab)

Polymarket

Largest prediction market — deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus

  • Polymarket Clearing (CFTC-regulated exchange)
  • Available in Texas
  • Best for: Deep liquidity, sports, politics & culture

Trade on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)

OG (Crypto.com)

Sports event contracts on a CFTC-regulated DCM

  • CFTC-regulated DCM (via Crypto.com Derivatives North America)
  • Available in Texas
  • Best for: Sports event contracts, mobile-first UX

Trade on OG (Crypto.com) (opens in a new tab)

Frequently asked questions

Can I bet on elections in Texas?

You cannot place state-licensed bets on US elections in Texas. You can trade CFTC-regulated election contracts on Kalshi and on Polymarket US, which both accept Texas residents. (In Nevada, a court has ordered Kalshi to stop election contracts.) Both are federally regulated derivatives.

What political markets are available?

Presidential elections, congressional control, gubernatorial races (including Texas), Supreme Court decisions, Senate confirmations, and policy outcomes.

Why are election prediction markets considered accurate?

They aggregate real money from thousands of traders, creating a continuous price signal. Studies show prediction markets outperformed polls in most recent US election cycles.