The Texas grid — run by ERCOT, which serves ~90% of the state's load — is Kalshi's most-traded regional utility market. Contracts cover conservation appeals, Energy Emergency Alerts, all-time peak-demand records, and rotating outages. Here's how each type resolves and what the 2026 outlook looks like.
The four ERCOT market types on Kalshi
- Conservation Appeal — ERCOT publicly asks Texans to reduce use. Kalshi contracts resolve YES if any conservation appeal is issued during the window (e.g. "by 6pm on August 15").
- Energy Emergency Alert (EEA1 / EEA2 / EEA3) — declared when operating reserves fall below 2,300 MW, 1,750 MW, and 1,375 MW respectively. Kalshi markets typically resolve to the highest EEA level reached in the window.
- Peak-demand record — YES if ERCOT sets a new all-time system-wide peak-demand record (the current record is 85,931 MW, set August 20, 2023).
- Rotating outage — YES if ERCOT orders EEA3 firm load shed. Rare — last triggered during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021.
2026 grid outlook
ERCOT's Summer 2026 Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy shows reserves above the required threshold under normal weather. New Texas Energy Fund gas generation coming online reduces (but does not eliminate) blackout tail risk during extreme heat combined with low wind — the exact scenario that produced conservation appeals in 2022 and 2023.
Winter is the sharper tail. The February 2021 Uri outage cost 246 lives and $195B; ERCOT and PUCT have since winterized generation, but interconnection to the Eastern and Western grids remains minimal. A repeat multi-day sub-10°F event across the state would strain the system.
How to trade it
The only US venue with ERCOT contracts. Search "ERCOT" or "Texas grid" in the app. Related: Texas weather markets and heat-dome temperature markets.
ERCOT's public dashboard shows real-time demand, reserves, and any active alerts. Load your position when the 7-day forecast pushes projected demand above 82,000 MW.