The 2026 Formula 1 Lenovo United States Grand Prix runs October 23–25 at Circuit of the Americas. It's the biggest F1 weekend on the Kalshi and Polymarket calendars — and the first COTA race under F1's new power-unit and chassis regulations, which have already reshuffled the driver market.
What 2026 regulations mean for COTA odds
F1's 2026 rules cut car weight, split power delivery 50/50 between combustion and electric, and introduce active aerodynamics. The result: the pecking order reset in Melbourne and hasn't fully settled. Through the first half of 2026, race wins have been split across at least four teams — a scenario Polymarket priced at under 15% a year ago.
Where to trade the US Grand Prix
CFTC-regulated USD contracts on the race winner, podium, and championship. Best if you want a 1099 at year-end. See how to use Kalshi from Texas.
Deepest driver-winner liquidity globally, tightest spreads on the Drivers' Championship. USDC settlement. See how to use Polymarket from Texas.
Key F1 markets to watch
- Race winner — the main COTA contract. Resolves within an hour of the chequered flag.
- Podium finish (Yes/No per driver) — cheaper single-driver plays.
- Drivers' Championship — season-long contract, moves hardest after Austin, Mexico, and São Paulo (three-race US swing).
- Constructors' Championship — team-level contract.
- Fastest lap / pole position — thinner, more volatile.
Is F1 betting legal in Texas?
Traditional sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel) are illegal in Texas. But F1 event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges are legal for Texans 21+. Full legal framework: Texas sports betting: legal alternatives.