The 98th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 15, 2026. Polymarket and Kalshi both list CFTC-regulated event contracts on Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress. Live traded prices are the market's implied probability for each nominee — and they reprice within minutes of every guild award.
Which categories trade
- Best Picture — deepest liquidity, longest list of nominees.
- Best Director — historically the most predictive single market.
- Best Actor / Best Actress — repricing tracks SAG & Golden Globe results.
- Best Supporting Actor / Actress — thinner books, wider spreads, occasional value.
Why prediction-market Oscars odds beat editor picks
Markets aggregate real money from thousands of traders, including industry insiders. They reprice in minutes after every precursor award (Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAG, DGA, PGA). Historically, the Polymarket favorite going into ceremony night has won Best Picture in 8 of the last 10 ceremonies — better than any single published expert.
Trade the Oscars from Texas
Both venues are CFTC-regulated event-contract exchanges — legal for Texas residents 21+. See are prediction markets legal in Texas? for the full framework.
Deepest Oscars book historically. Tight spreads on Best Picture and Best Director front-runners.
CFTC-regulated US DCM. USD deposits, ACH/debit. Cleaner regulatory story for first-time traders.