The 98th Academy Awards are March 15, 2026. Polymarket and Kalshi both list live contracts on every major category. Here's how to read them and trade them from Texas.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
The 98th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 15, 2026. Polymarket and Kalshi both list CFTC-regulated event contracts on Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress. Live traded prices are the market's implied probability for each nominee — and they reprice within minutes of every guild award.
TL;DR:
🏆 Ceremony: Sunday, March 15, 2026, Dolby Theatre.
📈 Live odds: Polymarket (deepest), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated).
✅ Legal in Texas 21+ as federal derivatives — not state-licensed gambling.
🎯 Most predictive signal: post-guild-awards repricing in late January / early February.
Which categories trade
Best Picture — deepest liquidity, longest list of nominees.
Best Director — historically the most predictive single market.
Best Actor / Best Actress — repricing tracks SAG & Golden Globe results.
Best Supporting Actor / Actress — thinner books, wider spreads, occasional value.
Markets aggregate real money from thousands of traders, including industry insiders. They reprice in minutes after every precursor award (Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAG, DGA, PGA). Historically, the Polymarket favorite going into ceremony night has won Best Picture in 8 of the last 10 ceremonies — better than any single published expert.
Trade the Oscars from Texas
Both venues are CFTC-regulated event-contract exchanges — legal for Texas residents 21+. See
are prediction markets legal in Texas?
for the full framework.
Polymarket
Deepest Oscars book historically. Tight spreads on Best Picture and Best Director front-runners.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Last checked October 21, 2026
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated US DCM. USD deposits, ACH/debit. Cleaner regulatory story for first-time traders.
Polymarket and Kalshi both list Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress contracts for the 98th Academy Awards. Polymarket has historically had the deepest liquidity on Oscars markets. Live traded prices are the implied probability for each nominee.
When are the 2026 Oscars?
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. Nominations were announced January 22, 2026.
Can Texans legally bet on the Oscars?
Available (as of October 3, 2026), through CFTC-regulated event contract exchanges. Kalshi and Polymarket both list Academy Award contracts and are legally available to Texas residents (minimum age 18 on both; we recommend 21+). Texas does not license traditional sportsbooks, so these federally regulated derivatives are the way Texans can trade Oscars outcomes.
Are Oscars prediction markets accurate?
Historically, very. Prediction markets correctly priced the Best Picture favorite in 8 of the last 10 ceremonies before voting closed. They aggregate real money from thousands of traders and reprice faster than published expert picks.
How do Oscars markets resolve?
Contracts resolve YES for the announced winner of each category during the live ceremony, NO for every other nominee. Resolution is typically within hours of the broadcast.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
The Spurs open October 20 against the Thunder, the Rockets host the Mavericks October 21 and the Rockets play the Spurs in Austin October 23. Opening week, key dates and how Texas NBA contracts work.
