TEXAS COMPTROLLER 2026: OPEN-SEAT ODDS
The most powerful open executive seat in Texas since 2014. Candidates, primary calculus, and how to trade it.
Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25!
TXPREDICTSClaim (opens in a new tab)21+ · T&Cs apply
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Update — September 29, 2026: Don Huffines won the March 3 Republican primary outright, beating acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock and Christi Craddick, and faces Democrat Sarah Eckhardt on November 3, 2026 (Texas Tribune).
Glenn Hegar's move to the UT System chancellorship leaves the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts open for the first time since 2014. The comptroller runs the state's Biennial Revenue Estimate, tax collection, and the $28B Rainy Day Fund — arguably the second-most powerful executive job in Texas.
TL;DR:
- 🪑 Open seat — Hegar out
- 🔴 GOP field: Don Huffines, Christi Craddick, plus late entrants likely
- 🗳️ Primary March 3, 2026 · General Nov 3, 2026
- 💰 Market coverage: thin — watch Polymarket "Texas 2026 statewide" event
Who is running?
Republican side. The field so far includes former state senator Don Huffines (Dallas) and Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick (Midland). Both are well-funded, both have statewide name ID from prior campaigns. Additional candidates are expected before the December 2025 filing deadline.
Democratic side. No first-tier candidate has filed as of mid-2026. Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994; the primary here is effectively the general.
Why the Comptroller job matters
- Certifies the biennial budget — no bill spends money the comptroller says isn't there.
- Administers the sales tax, franchise tax, and every non-property tax.
- Manages the Economic Stabilization Fund (~$28B in FY2026).
- Publishes the state's official revenue and economic forecasts.
How to trade it
Down-ballot Texas statewide races typically list on Polymarket as sub-markets inside a "Texas 2026 statewide winners" event, and on Kalshi as individual contract series closer to the March primary. Liquidity is thin until January; if you want a position early, expect wide spreads.
Polymarket
Best for down-ballot Texas races — deepest USD-equivalent liquidity.
Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25!
TXPREDICTS
Claim on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Last checked October 21, 2026
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated USD contracts. Cleanest tax treatment for Texans.
More Texas 2026: Texas Primary 2026 · Senate 2026 odds · Governor 2026 odds
Sources & references
Pick your venue
Four CFTC-regulated exchanges that accept Texans (status in Texas: Available, as of 3 October 2026). Full comparison →
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated event contracts — trade $25, get $25
- CFTC-regulated (USA)
- Available in Texas
- Best for: Sports, weather, politics, economics
ProphetX
Your sports prediction market — trade $50, get $75
- CFTC-designated contract market
- 49 states + D.C. (not Nevada), including Texas
- Best for: Sports-only trading, no-vig peer-to-peer pricing
Polymarket
Largest prediction market — deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus
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- Available in Texas
- Best for: Deep liquidity, sports, politics & culture
OG (Crypto.com)
Sports event contracts on a CFTC-regulated DCM
- CFTC-regulated DCM (via Crypto.com Derivatives North America)
- Available in Texas
- Best for: Sports event contracts, mobile-first UX
Frequently asked questions
Who is running for Texas Comptroller in 2026?
The seat is open after Glenn Hegar's move to the University of Texas System chancellorship. Republican candidates include former state senator Don Huffines and Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick. Democrats have not fielded a competitive candidate as of mid-2026.
Why does the Texas Comptroller race matter?
The comptroller controls the state's $300B+ biennial revenue estimate, tax administration, and the Economic Stabilization ('Rainy Day') Fund. It is the second-most powerful executive office in Texas after the governor.
Is there a prediction market on the Texas Comptroller race?
Coverage is thin. Kalshi and Polymarket typically list statewide Texas offices closer to the March primary. Watch the 'Texas 2026 statewide' event pages on both platforms.
When is the Texas Comptroller election?
Primary March 3, 2026. General election Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Winner takes office in January 2027.
21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.