Guides2 min read

TEXAS COMPTROLLER 2026: OPEN-SEAT ODDS

The most powerful open executive seat in Texas since 2014. Candidates, primary calculus, and how to trade it.

Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25!

21+ · T&Cs apply

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

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Leather chair and desk in an office facing the Texas Capitol at dusk
Illustration: leather chair and desk in an office facing the Texas Capitol at dusk.
On this page
  1. Who is running?
  2. Why the Comptroller job matters
  3. How to trade it
  4. Pick your venue

Update — September 29, 2026: Don Huffines won the March 3 Republican primary outright, beating acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock and Christi Craddick, and faces Democrat Sarah Eckhardt on November 3, 2026 (Texas Tribune).

Glenn Hegar's move to the UT System chancellorship leaves the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts open for the first time since 2014. The comptroller runs the state's Biennial Revenue Estimate, tax collection, and the $28B Rainy Day Fund — arguably the second-most powerful executive job in Texas.

TL;DR:

  • 🪑 Open seat — Hegar out
  • 🔴 GOP field: Don Huffines, Christi Craddick, plus late entrants likely
  • 🗳️ Primary March 3, 2026 · General Nov 3, 2026
  • 💰 Market coverage: thin — watch Polymarket "Texas 2026 statewide" event

Who is running?

Republican side. The field so far includes former state senator Don Huffines (Dallas) and Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick (Midland). Both are well-funded, both have statewide name ID from prior campaigns. Additional candidates are expected before the December 2025 filing deadline.

Democratic side. No first-tier candidate has filed as of mid-2026. Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994; the primary here is effectively the general.

Why the Comptroller job matters

  • Certifies the biennial budget — no bill spends money the comptroller says isn't there.
  • Administers the sales tax, franchise tax, and every non-property tax.
  • Manages the Economic Stabilization Fund (~$28B in FY2026).
  • Publishes the state's official revenue and economic forecasts.

How to trade it

Down-ballot Texas statewide races typically list on Polymarket as sub-markets inside a "Texas 2026 statewide winners" event, and on Kalshi as individual contract series closer to the March primary. Liquidity is thin until January; if you want a position early, expect wide spreads.

Polymarket

Best for down-ballot Texas races — deepest USD-equivalent liquidity.

Trade on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)

Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25!

TXPREDICTS

Claim on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

Last checked October 21, 2026

Kalshi

CFTC-regulated USD contracts. Cleanest tax treatment for Texans.

Trade on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)

More Texas 2026: Texas Primary 2026 · Senate 2026 odds · Governor 2026 odds

Pick your venue

Four CFTC-regulated exchanges that accept Texans (status in Texas: Available, as of 3 October 2026). Full comparison →

Kalshi

CFTC-regulated event contracts — trade $25, get $25

  • CFTC-regulated (USA)
  • Available in Texas
  • Best for: Sports, weather, politics, economics

Trade on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)

ProphetX

Your sports prediction market — trade $50, get $75

  • CFTC-designated contract market
  • 49 states + D.C. (not Nevada), including Texas
  • Best for: Sports-only trading, no-vig peer-to-peer pricing

Trade on ProphetX (opens in a new tab)

Polymarket

Largest prediction market — deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus

  • Polymarket Clearing (CFTC-regulated exchange)
  • Available in Texas
  • Best for: Deep liquidity, sports, politics & culture

Trade on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)

OG (Crypto.com)

Sports event contracts on a CFTC-regulated DCM

  • CFTC-regulated DCM (via Crypto.com Derivatives North America)
  • Available in Texas
  • Best for: Sports event contracts, mobile-first UX

Trade on OG (Crypto.com) (opens in a new tab)

Frequently asked questions

Who is running for Texas Comptroller in 2026?

The seat is open after Glenn Hegar's move to the University of Texas System chancellorship. Republican candidates include former state senator Don Huffines and Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick. Democrats have not fielded a competitive candidate as of mid-2026.

Why does the Texas Comptroller race matter?

The comptroller controls the state's $300B+ biennial revenue estimate, tax administration, and the Economic Stabilization ('Rainy Day') Fund. It is the second-most powerful executive office in Texas after the governor.

Is there a prediction market on the Texas Comptroller race?

Coverage is thin. Kalshi and Polymarket typically list statewide Texas offices closer to the March primary. Watch the 'Texas 2026 statewide' event pages on both platforms.

When is the Texas Comptroller election?

Primary March 3, 2026. General election Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Winner takes office in January 2027.