TEXAS PRIMARY 2026: DATES, BALLOT & LIVE ODDS

On this page · 5

1. What's on the 2026 Texas primary ballot?
2. Live odds: the two races Texans are trading
3. Key dates to trade around
4. Is trading the Texas primary legal in Texas?
5. Pick your venue

Recap: Texas held its primaries on March 3, 2026 and runoffs on May 26. Ken Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Republican runoff with 63.8% and faces Democrat James Talarico on November 3 (Texas Tribune; Ballotpedia). Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa (Ballotpedia), and Don Huffines won the Republican comptroller primary outright (Texas Tribune). For the general election, see Texas Senate 2026 odds.

The Texas primary is Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Early voting runs February 17–27, with any runoff on May 26. This is the busiest ballot Texans see in the cycle — a full slate of statewide executive offices, a U.S. Senate seat, every U.S. House district, and half the state Legislature.

TL;DR:

• 📅 Primary: March 3, 2026 · Runoff: May 26 · General: Nov 3
• 🏛️ Marquee races: Senate (Cornyn vs Paxton), Governor (Abbott), AG, Comptroller
• 💰 Polymarket favorite for GOP Senate primary: Ken Paxton
• ✅ Kalshi + Polymarket both list Texas primary contracts — legal for Texans (minimum age 18; we recommend 21+)

What's on the 2026 Texas primary ballot?

• U.S. Senate — Cornyn's Class II seat. GOP primary is the ballgame.
• Governor — Greg Abbott seeks a fourth term.
• Lt. Governor — Dan Patrick presumed to seek re-election.
• Attorney General — Open seat with Paxton running for Senate.
• Comptroller — Open seat. See Comptroller 2026 odds.
• Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, Railroad Commissioner (one of three seats).
• All 38 U.S. House seats, half the Texas Senate, all 150 Texas House seats.
• Texas Supreme Court, Court of Criminal Appeals, appellate benches.

Live odds: the two races Texans are trading

Key dates to trade around

• Feb 2, 2026 — Voter registration deadline.
• Feb 17–27 — Early voting. Big polling releases move prices.
• March 3 — Primary election day. Contracts settle on major GOP races within 24–72 hours.
• May 26 — Primary runoff if any race fails to hit 50%.
• Nov 3 — General election. Statewide markets stay live until called.

Is trading the Texas primary legal in Texas?

Available (as of October 3, 2026), on CFTC-regulated exchanges. Kalshi (US DCM) and Polymarket (via US entity QCX) both list Texas election contracts. These are federal derivatives, not state-licensed sports betting. Background: are prediction markets legal in Texas?

Pick your venue

Four CFTC-regulated exchanges that accept Texans (status in Texas: Available, as of 3 October 2026). Full comparison →

Frequently asked questions

When is the Texas primary in 2026?

Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Early voting runs February 17–27. A runoff, if needed, is Tuesday, May 26, 2026.

What races are on the 2026 Texas primary ballot?

Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, one Railroad Commission seat, U.S. Senate (Cornyn's seat), all 38 U.S. House seats, half the Texas Senate, all 150 Texas House seats, and appellate judges.

Can I trade the Texas primary on Kalshi or Polymarket?

Yes. Both list markets on the U.S. Senate Republican primary (Cornyn vs Paxton), the Governor Republican primary, and the general-election winners for Governor and Senate. Both are CFTC-regulated and trade in US dollars.

Who is favored to win the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary?

As of mid-2026, Polymarket prices Attorney General Ken Paxton as the favorite over incumbent John Cornyn, though Cornyn retains a large fundraising and endorsement lead. Live prices move daily.

Do I need to register as a party member to vote in the Texas primary?

No. Texas has open primaries — you can vote in either party's primary on March 3, but only one. Your choice is recorded for the runoff.