The Texas primary is Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Early voting runs February 17–27, with any runoff on May 26. This is the busiest ballot Texans see in the cycle — a full slate of statewide executive offices, a U.S. Senate seat, every U.S. House district, and half the state Legislature.
What's on the 2026 Texas primary ballot?
- U.S. Senate — Cornyn's Class II seat. GOP primary is the ballgame.
- Governor — Greg Abbott seeks a fourth term.
- Lt. Governor — Dan Patrick presumed to seek re-election.
- Attorney General — Open seat with Paxton running for Senate.
- Comptroller — Open seat. See Comptroller 2026 odds.
- Land Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, Railroad Commissioner (one of three seats).
- All 38 U.S. House seats, half the Texas Senate, all 150 Texas House seats.
- Texas Supreme Court, Court of Criminal Appeals, appellate benches.
Live odds: the two races Texans are trading
Senate GOP primary
Ken Paxton vs John Cornyn. Deepest liquidity on Polymarket. Full breakdown: Texas Senate 2026 odds.
Governor GOP primary
Abbott heavily favored. Any credible challenger moves prices fast. Governor 2026 odds.
Key dates to trade around
- Feb 2, 2026 — Voter registration deadline.
- Feb 17–27 — Early voting. Big polling releases move prices.
- March 3 — Primary election day. Contracts settle on major GOP races within 24–72 hours.
- May 26 — Primary runoff if any race fails to hit 50%.
- Nov 3 — General election. Statewide markets stay live until called.
Is trading the Texas primary legal in Texas?
Yes — on CFTC-regulated exchanges. Kalshi (US DCM) and Polymarket (via US entity QCX) both list Texas election contracts. These are federal derivatives, not state-licensed sports betting. Background: are prediction markets legal in Texas?
Sources & references