Polls close at 7pm CT on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Precinct-level Texas results post live to the Secretary of State's portal within minutes. Most statewide races call by 10pm CT — but the interesting money is in the races that don't.
Where to watch results live
- Texas Secretary of State — official statewide returns, updated every 5 minutes.
- AP, Decision Desk HQ, NBC, Fox — race calls that resolve Kalshi and Polymarket contracts.
- County clerk sites — precinct-level detail (Harris, Dallas, Travis, Bexar, Tarrant).
- Kalshi & Polymarket contract pages — live crowd-sourced probability for each race.
Races to watch
- U.S. Senate (Cornyn seat) — the marquee. See Senate 2026 odds.
- Governor — Abbott vs Democratic nominee. See Governor 2026 odds.
- Attorney General — open seat with Paxton running for Senate.
- Comptroller — open seat. See Comptroller 2026 odds.
- Competitive US House — TX-15, TX-28, TX-34 are historically tightest.
How accurate are prediction markets on Texas?
Across 2020, 2022, and 2024, Kalshi and Polymarket priced Texas statewide winners within 2–3 points of the final margin. On the 2024 Cruz–Allred Senate race, Polymarket had Cruz at 92% by 6am on election morning; he won by 8.6 points, essentially the poll-of-polls consensus. The markets missed harder on the popular-vote margin in the 2022 Governor race (they had Abbott +9 vs a final of +11), but the winner call was never in doubt.
What that means for trading: the alpha is in the low-attention races — Comptroller, Railroad Commission, and competitive US House districts — where markets are thin and public polling is scarce.
Trade election night
Deepest liquidity on statewide and presidential contracts. USDC settlement.