Super Bowl LXI is Sunday, February 7, 2027. Championship contracts for the 2026 season are already live on Kalshi and Polymarket, and preseason is when the spread between market price and your own read is widest — before injuries, Week 1 results, and the trade deadline compress everything.
Why exchange odds beat sportsbook futures
A sportsbook Super Bowl board is priced so the implied probabilities of all 32 teams add up to well over 100% — often 120–140%. That overround is the house edge, and it is why futures are the worst-value bet on the board. On an exchange you trade against other users at prices that sum close to 100%, paying a small per-trade fee instead. Over a full season that difference is far larger than any single line you could shop.
The two Texas teams
The most-traded NFL team contract in Texas by volume. Preseason pricing has sat in the 4¢–9¢ band, meaning a $100 position pays roughly $1,100–$2,500 on a title.
Thinner liquidity, wider spreads — which cuts both ways. Division-winner contracts usually offer better fills than the outright title market.
Price ranges are historical context, not a live quote. Check the exchange before trading.
Season checkpoints that move the price
- Roster cuts & Week 1 — the largest single-week repricing of the year.
- Trade deadline (early November) — contenders buy, sellers collapse 2–4¢.
- Weeks 15–18 — seeding and bye clarity; contracts converge toward the playoff field.
- Conference championships (late Jan 2027) — two teams left, prices near 50¢.
- Feb 7, 2027 — settlement at $1.00 for the winner.
Is it legal in Texas?
Yes. Texas has no legal sportsbooks — see is DraftKings legal in Texas and is FanDuel legal in Texas — but CFTC-regulated event contracts are a separate federal category and available to Texans 21+. Full breakdown: are prediction markets legal in Texas? Tax treatment differs from sports betting too — Kalshi taxes in Texas.