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Texas's 2026 U.S. Senate race is Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico, for the seat John Cornyn held. Paxton beat Cornyn in the 26 May Republican runoff. Recent polls show a close race, and early voting runs from 19 to 30 October before Election Day on 3 November. Kalshi and Polymarket US list the race for Texans.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Last checked October 21, 2026
The polls (dated)
Poll
Published
Talarico
Paxton
Fox News (881 likely voters, ±3)
Late September 2026
51%
49%
Texas Politics Project (likely voters, ±3.34)
October 2026 (per Fox 7 roundup)
50%
47%
YouGov
October 2026 (per Fox 7 roundup)
50%
44%
All within or near the margin of error. Polls aren't market prices; check each app for the current price.
Key dates
Date
What happens
Mon 19 Oct
Early in-person voting starts
Fri 23 Oct
Last day for a mail-ballot application to be received
Fri 30 Oct
Early voting ends
Tue 3 Nov
Election Day
County hours and locations vary: check your county elections office or VoteTexas.gov.
What the markets cover
Senate race winner: yes/no on each candidate.
Senate control: which party holds the U.S. Senate after the midterms.
Kalshi, Polymarket US and OG are CFTC-regulated and available to Texans (status as of 16 October 2026). The platforms' minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+. Trading involves risk.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
The Spurs open October 20 against the Thunder, the Rockets host the Mavericks October 21 and the Rockets play the Spurs in Austin October 23. Opening week, key dates and how Texas NBA contracts work.
