The 2026 NFL season starts Sunday, September 13, and both Texas teams are on the board that afternoon. The Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium; the Dallas Cowboys travel to the New York Giants for Sunday Night Football. Below: exact kickoff times, the Week 2 follow-ups, the names that move each market, and live game-winner prices.
Live odds — Cowboys at Giants (Week 1)
Prices are implied win probability: a Cowboys contract at 60¢ means the market gives Dallas a 60% chance. The winner settles at $1.00. Because it's a Sunday night national window, this is usually the deepest Week 1 market on the board — spreads tighten sharply once inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff.
Live odds — Texans vs Bills (Week 1)
Houston opens at home against one of the AFC's perennial contenders, and the market has it close to a coin flip — the most informative single data point of the Texans' season. If you want a longer hold than one Sunday, the season win total and the AFC South division winner contract price off the same information.
The first two games, in full
| Week | Game | Date / kickoff (CT) | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills at Texans (NRG Stadium) | Sun, Sept 13 · 12:00 pm | CBS |
| 1 | Cowboys at Giants (MetLife Stadium) | Sun, Sept 13 · 7:20 pm | NBC |
| 2 | Bengals at Texans (NRG Stadium) | Sun, Sept 20 · 12:00 pm | CBS |
| 2 | Commanders at Cowboys (AT&T Stadium) | Sun, Sept 20 · 3:25 pm | FOX |
Both teams meet each other in Week 4 — Cowboys at Texans, Sunday, October 4 at NRG Stadium (noon CT, FOX). That Governor's Cup game is reliably the highest-volume in-state contract of the regular season.
Cowboys players the market prices
- Dak Prescott (QB). The single largest swing factor in any Cowboys contract. Historically, a Prescott injury designation has repriced Dallas game-winner markets by 10–15 points in minutes — the fastest-moving news in the market.
- CeeDee Lamb (WR). The default anytime-touchdown favorite in Dallas games and the most-traded Cowboys player prop when Polymarket lists a scorer market.
- George Pickens (WR). The high-variance side of the receiving room — big-play upside that shows up in team totals and first-touchdown pricing more than in game-winner odds.
- Javonte Williams (RB). Workload share is the tell for how Dallas plans to play from ahead; a heavy early-down role usually tracks with lower-total game scripts.
- Jake Ferguson (TE). A red-zone target who quietly shifts touchdown-scorer pricing when Lamb draws bracket coverage.
Texans players the market prices
- C.J. Stroud (QB). Houston's entire market is a Stroud market. Every Texans contract — game winner, division, season wins — is effectively a bet on his availability and protection.
- Nico Collins (WR). The volume alpha. Collins' target share drives Texans team totals and is the first name in any scorer market.
- Tank Dell (WR). Speed and separation; his practice-participation status is one of the more reliable early signals for a Houston price move.
- Jayden Higgins (WR). The young riser — the market is slow to reprice second-year breakouts, which is where mispricing tends to sit.
- Azeez Al-Shaair (LB). Defensive availability rarely gets the headlines but shows up in totals and second-half live pricing.
Player notes describe how markets have historically reacted; they are not predictions or guarantees. Rosters change through final cuts in late August — verify the depth chart before you trade.
How to trade NFL Week 1 from Texas
- Pick a venue. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US exchange with game winners, spreads, totals and season win totals. Polymarket runs deeper per-game and player markets. Both are open to Texans 21+.
- Fund and verify early. Verification queues clog the week of kickoff. See how to use Kalshi from Texas or how to use Polymarket from Texas.
- Read prices as implied probability. Add both sides of a market: a healthy two-sided NFL market totals near 100%, and anything well above that means the spread is wide and you are paying to enter.
- Watch the inactives window. Roughly 90 minutes before kickoff is the largest single price move of the day.
- Claim the welcome offer first. New Polymarket users can enter promo code TXPREDICTS and get a $50 trading bonus on a $10 deposit before Week 1 kicks off.
- Know the fees. Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees work very differently on short-hold trades.
CFTC-regulated, US-based. Best for game winners, spreads, totals, and season-long Cowboys/Texans win totals with straightforward USD funding.
Deepest per-game NFL liquidity plus touchdown-scorer and MVP markets. The live widgets on this page stream from Polymarket's public API.
New to this? Start with the side-by-side platform comparison or read our Kalshi review and Polymarket review.
Season-long angles worth a look
Week 1 and 2 results reprice the futures board harder than any other stretch of the year. If you'd rather hold something longer than three hours, the Super Bowl LXI market (February 7, 2027) and the Cowboys & Texans championship contracts both move on those first two Sundays. For college football, see the CFP championship odds.
Is this legal in Texas?
Yes, with a caveat worth understanding. Texas has no legal sportsbooks — see is DraftKings legal in Texas and is FanDuel legal in Texas. Event contracts are a different federal category, regulated by the CFTC rather than the state, which is why Kalshi and Polymarket operate here. Full breakdown: are prediction markets legal in Texas? Tax treatment also differs — Kalshi taxes in Texas.